By Seble Teweldebirhan
August 12, 2017 - According to a new study by KEW and Environment and Coffee Forest Forum (ECFF), titled Coffee Farming and Climate Change in Ethiopia, Arabica Coffee, one of the highest quality coffees in the world, might be absolutely extinct by the end of this century. The report states that, unless immediate actions are taken to reverse the current trend of climate change, Ethiopia is on the verge of losing its status as one of the top five countries in the world for exporting coffee just in 50 years.
Coffee Arabica is not only high quality, organic and forest-based coffee, but also unique for Ethiopia. It is a forest plant restricted to the highlands of the nation and in small areas in South Sudan. As a result, Ethiopia is a biological home for Coffee Arabica. The country takes a strong pride in this golden cash crop for a variety of reasons. Its economic significance is so enormous that, one quarter of Ethiopia’s total export earning comes from Coffee alone. Ethiopia is also Africa’s biggest coffee producer and the world’s fifth exporter of Coffee Arabica. According to estimates, the livelihood of nearly 15 million farmers, most of them small holders, depend on coffee production. In addition to its value as a top export commodity and a source of desperately needed foreign exchange, coffee also has an enormous cultural significance and traditional value for Ethiopians.
Ethiopia is a farming nation. Nearly 79% of the population is either a farmer or is employed in activities related to agriculture. The country also depends on agriculture for much of its export earnings, 81% of exported commodities coming from this sector. However, for a variety of reasons, including failed policy and political will, as well as climate change in recent years, the sector remains unable to pull the majority of Ethiopians out of poverty. In fact, as climate change intensifies and small holder farmers remain stuck in traditional and backward agricultural mechanisms, the ambition to transform the nation into an industrial country is sounding more and more an over reach. Currently, climate change and its drastic impact are clearly observable. Draught has become not only frequent but also a way of life, with shorter rainy seasons and extreme heat becoming more frequent. The season’s irregularity and lack of prior information or poor weather prediction has made millions of Ethiopia’s poor farmers more vulnerable. The change in weather affects rain-fed crop production, livestock and other agricultural activities around the country, increasing the extent of food and water shortages in areas previously considered productive and food-secure. Today, nearly 10 million people in Ethiopia depend on food assistance for mere survival.
The new study by KEW adds to these already daunting predictions for the nation’s agriculture.
Arabica coffee grows within a narrow range of environment conditions and the interplay between rainfall, temperature and seasonality are the main factors governing the growth. Coffee is known to be increasingly stressed as the air temperature increases and soil moisture decreases due to lack of rainfall. A century of deforestation in the country, with the recent phenomenon of climate change, left most of Ethiopia’s coffee growing land without its much needed shades. Also, in the coffee growing areas of Ethiopia, humidity is directly linked with rainfall and temperature. Unfortunately, data from weather stations shows a drastic increase in temperatures and decrease in rainfall. As a result, the current coffee growing land could decrease by up to 60%, according to the study. That is given the prediction for temperature reduction of 4c by the end of the century. Therefore, business as usual attitude for coffee production in Ethiopia might fail the country terribly, the research states.
The study recommends for Ethiopia to take immediate action to reverse the impact of climate change. Some of the recommendations include a timely, precise, science-based decision making to ensure sustainability and resilience in the sector and improve the agro-economy. Greater investments, better resource allocation to small holder farmers, forest preservation and afforestation, as well strengthening the value chain across the country and at a global level are some of the recommendations. Otherwise, the research states that, Ethiopia’s future in coffee production is in great jeopardy.
The findings of this research have gotten a considerable global attention, as coffee is the most favorite drug around the world, and of course one of the top commodities in global markets. Many news agencies including CNN and BBC have taken the news rather shocking stating that millions of people in the western world who prefer the native Arabica caffeine might not find it in coffee houses in just few decades. In addition, the growing coffee consumption around the world, nearly 10 billion kilograms in 2016 according to the BBC (it was 4.5B kilograms in 1980), will make coffee the most expensive commodity in the world, if countries like Ethiopia are out of production.
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Seble Teweldebirhan is Addis Ababa based Reporter for Ezega.com. She can be reached by sending email through the form below.